•
Capital: There is a serious
necessity inmodernization of
fixed capital
•
Innovations –measures for
copyright protection stimulate
innovations development
a.
Expansion of labor market
depends on immigrants to a
significant degree
•
Demographic situation is
dramatically bad
•
It is necessary to create
conditions to attract migrants
and create jobs for the citizens
b.
Decrease the devaluation
potential
•
Unlike Russia, Ukraine has
not exhausted the devaluation
potential fully...
•
…however, further
strengthening of the national
currency acts simultaneously
with the increase of prices on
energy carriers
c.
Investment growth is the
key factor of overall growth
•
Investment boom of the
past year may now become
endangered...
•
...nevertheless, so far the
investment increase is still
high despite the existing
political instability
d.
Sources of investment
growth inUkraine
•
Themain driver of
investments are the
enterprises’ own funds...
•
...at the same time, the share
of budget funds remains low
in the increase environment
•
foreign investments are to
play important role for such
environment
e.
Profit of Ukrainian
enterprises
•
The share of unprofitable
enterprises in Ukraine
reduces...
•
...at the same time, profit of
the enterprises is increasingly
being allocated to the
investment growth
f.
Level of DFI increased
significantly in 2005-2007
•
In 2006, the level of direct
foreign investments exceeded
4% of the GDP
•
Statistics for the 1st quarter
of 2007 –$1.33 billion – are
quite promising
•
Further increase of DFI may
be stimulated additionally by
Ukraine’s futuremembership
inWTO
Ukraine on theway toWTO:
current stage of negotiations
•
March2006– signingof
bilateral agreementwith theUSA
•
In the nearest future,
agreement with Kyrgyzstan
may be signed
•
May 2007 – Government
adopted package of 11 laws
forWTOmembership
•
President Yuschenko:
Ukraine is going to be a
member ofWTO before
November 2007
•
Effect for economic growth:
the increase of GDP by 2-4%
Dividends for
macroeconomic
development
•
Consumption growth:
according to the estimations
of theWorld Bank, main
dividend ofWTOmembership
•
Foreign investments
increase: Chinese experience
•
Export increase: according
to the estimations of
Sleptsova, University of
Birmingham, 2006), due to the
decrease of foreign limitations,
the increase of Ukraine’s
export may be significant, in
particular, to the EU countries
•
Decrease of administrative
pressure in the field of foreign
trade regulation,
•
... as well as change of focus
of the state intervention from
interventionism inside the
country towards stimulation
of export to other countries
Industry and regional aspects
•
WTOmembershipwill
d)Structure
of investment intofixedcapital,
2006,%of thewholevolume
Source:
StateStatisticsCommitteeofUkraine
Total
Includingstatebudget funds
Own funds
Foreign investments
Investment funds
Bankcreditsandother loans
Other
100
5.5
57.8
3.7
1.7
15.5
15.8
c) Increase
of consumptionandaccumulation
Source:
StateStatisticsCommitteeofUkraine
1
1
6
Increaseof households’consumption Grossaccumulationof fixedcapital
b) Index
of real effective rateof hryvnias (1996=100)
Source:
DeutscheUFG
6
8
1
11
1
Jan
Jan 8
Jan
Jan
Jan 1
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan 6
Jan
81
ÍÅÄÂÈÆÈÌÎÑÒÜ, ÁÈÇÍÅÑ, ÈÍÂÅÑÒÈÖÈÈ
BUSINESS EMIRATES
UKRAINE -UAE
